My record for political prognostication has been consistent…
consistently wrong. I predicted the election of Presidents Birch Bayh, Gary
Hart, and Ted Kennedy. I had it right once but five members of the Supreme
Court snatched defeat out of the jaws of victory. Failure never stopped me from
trying again. So here goes.
I predict the 2014 Republican primary for the Senate will be
decided not by Republicans, but by whether or not enough Democrats decide to cross
over to vote against Liz Cheney.
Current polls may give Enzi a big lead, but by the time Liz
has actually lived in Wyoming long enough to legally purchase a resident
fishing license, those numbers will change. What matters now isn’t what Republicans
say when asked whether they’d vote for Enzi or Cheney if the election were today.
The reason the race will narrow in coming months can be
found in the probing questions Cheney’s pollsters most likely asked. You can
bet Dick Cheney’s daughter didn’t decide to run without a strong reason to
believe she could win. All you need to know about what pollsters learned that
gives Cheney encouragement is that Mike Enzi has joined Tea Partiers like Ted
Cruz in threatening to shut down the government if Democrats don’t agree to
defund Obamacare, an ideas Enzi’s Republican colleague, Senator Richard Burr (North
Carolina) calls “dumb” and the New York Times called “reckless.”
Enzi knows what Liz learned polling Wyoming Republicans. A
majority is more interested in doctrinaire, anti-Obama, uncompromising rhetoric
than in having an effective senator. They prefer someone who lobs grenades and
takes no prisoners to one who might be willing to negotiate a cease-fire. Evidence
the comparatively lukewarm reception Enzi received last weekend at Tea Party
events.
A divided Republican Party won’t determine the outcome, neither
Tea Partiers nor RINOS. Democrats will have to decide whether to save the GOP
from itself.
Remember the 2010 GOP primary that nominated Matt Mead? Most
Republicans didn’t want him to be their nominee. They wanted someone they perceived
as far more conservative. That candidate frightened Democrats who crossed over
in droves to vote in the GOP primary for Mead, assuring him the nomination,
which was tantamount to winning the general election.
In Natrona County, Democrats did the same for state senator
Charlie Scott. They feared the religious-right candidacy of Bob Brechtel and so
they crossed over and saved Scott’s bacon.
In both cases, Democrats have been more than a little
disappointed. In response to Brechtel’s challenge Charlie became Bob, leading
efforts to kill a bill protecting homosexuals from job-related discrimination
and stopping the expansion of Medicaid. They got Bob Brechtel’s voting record
with Scott’s influence. It was a bad bargain.
The disappointment with Mead is even greater. His
“thank-you” to those who secured his nomination has been to cross-over to the Republican
right on everything from fracking to Medicaid expansion. He decided that
instead of showing gratitude to those who nominated him, he would try to shore
up his right-wing.
Now we are coming into 2014 and Democrats are already
considering whether to bail out Mike Enzi. Remember George Bush’s admonition, “fool me once, shame on -
shame on you. Fool me – well, you can't get fooled again”? Democrats
have been victimized by unrequited love before and hesitate to give themselves
away again. As much as Democrats relish a chance to get a bit of revenge against
Dick Cheney they may choose to exercise some restraint. If Enzi decides that to
win the nomination he has to “out-nutty” Liz Cheney, Democrats have nothing to
gain or lose by letting Republicans decide their nominee for themselves.
Enzi’s willingness to demand the repeal of Obamacare as the
price for his vote to approve a budget is a bad omen. I may be wrong again. Mike
Enzi may not need Democrats in 2014 like Mead needed them in 2010. He’s
signaling he wants to do it on his own. Unless he throws Democrats a bone, they
should let him.