Will
increasing the minimum wage produce disastrous job losses? NO! Experts have debunk
that claim time and time again. Nonetheless, opponents made the same prediction
each time the minimum wage was increased. The fact that these predictions have
never come true doesn’t keep them from rolling off the tongues of low-wage
advocates.
In
February, the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) reported on the
impact of proposed increases in the minimum wage to $9 per hour. Increasing the
wage to $9 per hour, according to the CBO, would result in job losses of less
than one-tenth-of-one-percent.
The
CBO continued, “Federal spending and taxes would also be indirectly affected by
the increases in real income for some people and the reduction in real income for
others. As a group, workers with increased earnings would pay more in taxes and
receive less in federal benefits of certain types than they would have
otherwise.”
When
Americans pay their taxes, the bill includes billions for maintaining a
publicly funded safety net for low-wage-workers. Most people receiving
so-called “welfare” benefits are working full-time but are paid so little they
qualify for food stamps and Medicaid. For example, Forbes says, “Walmart’s low-wage workers cost U.S.
taxpayers an estimated $6.2 billion in public assistance including food stamps,
Medicaid and subsidized housing.”
Walmart
isn’t alone.
Prices
may rise minimally to cover minimum wage increases. That impact will be offset
by the reduction in costs of federal programs. The CBO predicts the overall
effects would include a small decrease in the budget deficit for several years.
They acknowledge there may be a small increase after that unless economic
growth overcomes that trend.
The
Economic Policy Institute believes minimum wage hikes would do that. “Raising
the minimum wage,” their 2013 study found, “would help reverse the ongoing
erosion of wages that has contributed significantly to growing income
inequality. Additionally, it would provide a modest stimulus to the entire
economy, as increased wages would lead to increased consumer spending, which
would contribute to GDP growth and modest employment gains.”
What’s
even more interesting is that the CBO’s 2014 findings mirror the conclusions
reached by EPI experts who studied past increases. In 2000, EPI studied the
impact of increasing a minimum wage from what was then a paltry $5.15 per hour.
Their findings were that, “No evidence exists that teenagers or
less-than-high-school-educated adults lost work as a result of the 1996-97
minimum wage increases.”
EPI
economists looked back over decades at previous minimum wage hikes and
concluded, “Historically, analyses of the minimum wage’s impact on young
workers have never shown the predicted large job-loss effects. The small
negative employment effects found in past analyses diminish over time and are
no longer statistically significant.”
It
doesn’t make you a “socialist” to believe that middle and low-income people
with more money to spend is good for the economy. Nor are you a “socialist” if
you believe well-paid employees are critical to the success of a business.
Fair
wage opponents will cite other studies to refute these. Between the Heritage
Foundation, Americans for Prosperity, and the US Chamber of Commerce, there
will be a number of contrary claims. But they have made the same arguments
every time the minimum wage was increased since it was set at 25 cents an hour
in 1938.
Sadly,
their arguments, or more accurately the arguments made by their lobbyists (who
are paid countless multiples of the minimum wage) are responsible for the fact
that today the minimum wage paid to US workers is lower than that earned by
workers in every economically developed nation in the world with the exception
of Japan.
Meanwhile,
Wyoming is one of only five states where the state minimum wage falls below the
federal minimum.
There
are good economic reasons to raise the minimum wage now. There is also a good
moral reason. Franklin Roosevelt said it best. “No business which depends for existence on paying less than living
wages to its workers has any right to continue in this country.”